01 May 2014 19:04:23
Although of course open to everyone to join the discussion, this is mainly a reply to KM's excellent discussion on managers below.
I would concede that TS is the best PL manager that Spurs have had when considering points scored (which really is the only objective way to measure it). But only just. We will also need to win both of our remaining games (or for him to be sacked before then) for him to keep it.
So to the stats:
TS has managed 20 games and scored 39pts (1.95 per game). Before that AVB managed 16 games and scored 27pts (1.69pg). Another way to measure it is to take all of AVB's games, where he scored 99pts in 54 games, at a rate of 1.83pg. These are the common ways it is usually looked at.
I'm a big fan of comparing results to the previous season as a benchmark. Some teams are easier, or a bogey team, and also some teams can be very tough away but pretty easy at home (e.g. Stoke). So let's do that.
Taking the first 16 games of the season, AVB scored 28 points last year to 27 points this year. Hardly a sackable offence on that basis, but it does feel like the decision was more a boardroom clash over scoring goals and playing Adebayor.
Comparing the next 20 games AVB scored 38 points last year, whereas TS has scored 39 points this year. So Tim is a point ahead. However AVB won the equivalent last 2 games (Hammers away and Villa at home) meaning Tim will need maximum points to stay ahead.
So I think it is fair to say that although TS is not a disaster as far as points scored goes, he's not an improvement on AVB. Where it is comparable the two have performed very similarly. But that means that you can't call for Tim to stay on his performance, as against the equivalent teams the previous year he has not improved us.
So I think if he does go you need to look at two things:
(a) a manager that can get the best out of players rather than seemingly always having a pop at them
(b) a manager that can beat the big teams
I guess it comes down to ambition. TS has not done a bad job; but can we do better?
(*someone please fact check those numbers as a typo on my part is easy as I've been copying them by hand!)
Wulf
My original post was not intended to boost Sherwood as our manager for next season. Your own posts have given several good reasons for not doing that.
I was only arguing that he hadn't done too badly as a stop-gap and deserves some credit for steadying the ship at a time when we could have gone into melt-down.
My own concern is whether he could keep that up, given his lack of experience.
Spurs1985 mentioned the 'new manger effect' and I tried to factor it out of my data, but my gut feel is that he is probably right and the effect has simply lasted a bit longer than usual.
Originally, I was sceptical about appointing AVB, given his relatively thin CV, but his record for us was pretty good and in the end I think he got a raw deal.
I hope the next manager is given a real chance to build something solid at WHL.
Oh yes, absolutely (and my post was not meant to imply that you were advocating him, sorry if it came across that way).
Like you I agree that he's done a decent job as a stand in (certainly equivalent to AVB).
Not to disagree with either of you, I also think TS has had the benefit of the second half of the season and some of the new signings settling Eriksen being the obvious example, and maybe Chadli to a lesser case. A period of time AVB did not get who ever was responsible for the signings.
The counter to that would be the increasing number of players that appear to be becoming unsettled during the second part of the season for whatever reason.
At the end of the day you have to play the cards you are dealt and motivate them to play for the club.